⚠ This model has been AI-generated (Claude Fable 5, Anthropic, under the supervision of
A. Golkar) and is currently undergoing verification.
Do not trust the model results unless manually verified.
LEO Mega-Constellation Collision Explorer
kinetic baseline vs Keplerian model · natural rate vs avoidance residual · anchored: 2608 collisions/yr at defaults (kinetic)
Engine ported 1:1 from collision_models.py (same symbols, same quadrature). Natural rate assumes no avoidance; residual applies f_fail. Rates scale exactly with σ and N².
Collisions / yr (natural)
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Keplerian · kinetic:
Residual / yr (with CA)
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f_fail = (1 = no CA, equals natural)
Per-satellite P(hit) in window T
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ν = /yr · by pop [/yr]:
Keplerian / kinetic
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F_sp × F_vel
Effective v_rel
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impact mean
Mean free path
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/ shell thickness:
Cascade branching κ
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κ=1 at N ≈
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Δr for ≤1 collision/yr (kinetic):
drag: rotate · wheel: zoom · light blue = nominal, flashing red = elevated local collision risk · 💥 = collision (natural rate, sim time)
Collisions/yr vs (log-log)
Collision-rate density vs latitude (geography of encounters)